Only one selection for Monday, which comes from Newcastle. Sunday was another disappointing day and we’re yet to get off the mark for September. King Kurt had his chance compromised from getting into a pace duel up-front and the frantic pace set meant the field came home at fairly long intervals. He’s worth another chance sometime but he’s not one to take anything less than double figure odds on, but at least his attitude mid-race seems to have improved for the cheekpieces. Monday’s bet is below.
MUSIC FESTIVAL (17:30) doesn’t look an obvious bet but I’m expecting a much improved effort on anything he’s done in 2012 now dropped to a 0-60 and back at a trip he used to excel at. He’s fallen to a career low mark and has been given a big chance by the handicapper, so it won’t be a big surprise to me to see a much improved effort. A winner off a mark of 60 over this 7f trip last year, he was generally in decent form during 2011, putting in some good performances without winning off marks of around 65. He hasn’t done anything much of note in 2012 though, and as a result that rating has plummeted to one of 55. That doesn’t tell the full story though, as he started his season relatively late in July and has been having to run against race-fit rivals throughout this year. From his five 2012 outings, the first three showed nothing ability wise but his past two, albeit beaten between 6 and 7 lengths, have been more promising. He made a fair bit of ground from the rear in the first one of these, looking like he’d finish pretty much last before doing some fairly decent late work, before a run that caught the eye last time out at Redcar. That was over a mile for a start, a trip that stretches him but he’d have surely finished much closer if given a much more vigorous ride. He wasn’t hit with the whip once, didn’t get the clearest of runs and I feel that cost him at least 2 or 3 lengths. If he’d run to that level (which I think wasn’t unlikely), the markets would be suggesting that he’d “returned to form and was on a good mark” and he’d certainly be a much shorter price than he is currently. Alongside this, that contest was a fairly decent 0-80 and he takes a dramatic drop in grade today, and it’s the easiest race he’s ran in all season, after usually competing in 0-70’s or 0-75’s even though he’s been eligible for weaker handicaps throughout 2012. The handicapper has also cut him some slack and a mark of 55 is too tempting to overlook here. 7f is a trip he’s perfectly fine, he goes on the ground and has the assistance of Graham Lee once again, which is surely a positive given how well he’s been riding this season. It is a slightly speculative bet as he may well have lost the plot altogether, but it is remarkable how many horses improve 10-15lbs on anything they’ve done in their recent form when taking a big drop in grade, and given Music Festival isn’t such the lost cause as the bare form makes out, this price is well worth investing in.
Bets
17:30 Newcastle – Music Festival; 2pts @ 33/1 Bet365 (bog)
